Sujoy B. 罗伊, 博士学位, 利乐全球最大体育平台拉斐特公司的首席工程师, 加州, 办公室, 有超过25年与水相关的大型建模项目的经验.
“I was drawn to climate change because of the scale and consequences of the problem,” said Dr. 罗伊. 着眼于长期的基础设施和未来的供水研究, climate considerations are seen less as a separate discipline and more integrated into ongoing and long-term analyses.
Dr. 罗伊领导了几项与水资源有关的主要跨学科研究, 水的质量, 水务项目的温室气体排放, 以及海平面上升的影响, 特别关注未来的增长和气候变化. Several of his key studies include climate change impacts on water supplies from Los Angeles Aqueduct, 一项全球最大体育平台气候变化对未来取水作用的全国性研究, and an ongoing study on the adaptation of agriculture in San Joaquin Valley in 加州 to potential climate change.
Dr. 罗伊曾在美国陆军服役.S. 2009年至2015年担任美国环境保护署科学顾问委员会委员. He also served on National Academy of Sciences panels on Missouri River Basin restoration and on Clean Water Act Implementation across the Mississippi Basin. He holds both a doctorate and master’s degree in Civil and 环境al Engineering from Carnegie Mellon University and a bachelor’s technical degree in Civil Engineering from the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi.
你是如何参与到与气候变化相关的建模中来的?
I’ve been involved in modeling in two ways: looking at it from the cycling of organic carbon in the environment and looking at impacts to human systems and infrastructure. 自20世纪90年代中期以来，我一直从事与气候相关的研究. 我早期的一些工作涉及到大规模的碳循环, 最近, 我一直在研究对特定区域的影响, 比如水资源和水质.
I think climate change has always been a part of projects that are looking at longer-term impacts. 例如，气候变化如何影响未来的供水方案? It is quite typical in looking at long-range 水的质量 planning or ecosystem planning to evaluate the impacts of future climate, 尤其是最近. It is seen less as a separate discipline and more as integral to the ongoing, long-term analysis.
What types of questions are you addressing in your more recent modeling focused on the impacts of climate change on water resources?
An area of great interest to me is how extreme behaviors will change in my own area of study related to water. 长期干旱会发生什么? 极端高温事件会发生什么, 以及极端降水事件会发生什么? Those are the periods when weather effects have a big impact on human and natural systems. 随着气候变暖, what’s the incidence of extremely hot days or the incidence of extreme rainstorms that could cause flooding?
我们是 looking at longer-term time horizons for climate change impacts to evaluate the suitability of proposed infrastructure. 如果你要在海岸附近修一条路, it’s important to understand what the flooding or the storm surge will be over the decades to come. You are looking at the specific impacts to your infrastructure and how to make it more resilient to a more variable climate. 这不仅仅是平均值的变化. 全球最大体育平台们谈论气候变化就是温度升高, 但我们需要担心的不仅仅是那些平均值. 极端天气也可能发生变化, and I think most of the damage to systems happens during those extreme periods. 百年一遇的洪水是我们非常关心的问题. Is there information that suggests that kind of an extreme event is becoming more commonplace? 这是我们分析的重点. 我的团队在利乐全球最大体育平台就是这么做的.
What are the biggest challenges you face when modeling future impacts of climate change on water resources?
尽管做了很多研究, we still don’t have a good understanding of what’s going to happen with something like precipitation in different regions. There could be more extreme wet periods, and we could be worrying about drought at the same time. 我们面临的挑战是，作为一个社会，我们如何对此进行规划? If we knew that there would be more droughts, we would be responding a certain way. 如果我们预计会有更多的洪水，我们就会采取不同的应对方式. 我认为这两种极端都可能发生, 未来情景的广度是一个巨大的挑战. For example, looking at 加州, models suggest that the future climate could be wetter or drier. 根据它的发展方向，我们可能不得不进行非常不同的投资.
How do you address the uncertainty involved in predicting future impacts related to climate change and provide meaningful information for your clients?
目前，我们采取的方法是试图传达这种不确定性. Even though climate change is one of the most actively researched topics today, 我们对描述未来20到30年的情况的信心相当有限. 我认为这是一个教育的过程. 我希望全球最大体育平台们意识到未来规划的潜在风险. 我知道有很多种可能. Some of the needed investments for greater flood protection or enhanced water supplies are huge. 有时，这些气候影响和投资可能跨越几代全球最大体育平台. The best recommendation we can provide to our clients is to inform them of the range of possibilities and try to better understand the weak points in their systems so we can focus on the most effective actions.
Has there been advancement in the modeling 技术 or in data acquisition to feed climate change models?
绝对. 我想每一年，或者每几年，我们收集的数据类型, 以及我们收集数据的效率和成本, 提高了. We understand our natural systems much better and the value of that resource becomes more and more apparent to society. 当我们获得越来越多的数据时，我们用于建模的工具将会扩展, 特别是我们正在建模的系统的临时详细数据. That improvement is happening because of cheaper 技术 and the value we’re giving to better understand these systems.
What do you think will be potentially the biggest future advancement in the modeling of climate change impacts on water resources?
社会希望我们提供更可信的未来情景来应对. There was a point when climate change itself was a concept that many people did not agree with or thought it was too far in the future. I think we’re past that and our clients are now trying to make reasonable decisions about long-term infrastructure sustainability. If we acknowledge that climate change will happen, the next question is what we should do about it. 我认为建模的进步将在未来几年提供更好的洞察力. The people making decisions on infrastructure investments should have more confidence in the future conditions they are planning to deal with.